It’s time to start the third round of the Mutua Madrid Open. Denis Shapovalov and Alexander Zverev, who played in a semi-final here in 2018, will close out the action at the Manolo Santana Stadium. Will the double champion, who leads the head-to-head 5-3, be able to defeat the former world number 10 again?
ATP Madrid Day 5 Predictions
Ugo Humbert vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
Face-to-face: Struff 1-0
It would be unwise to consider Jan-Lennard Struff a big contender at ATP Madrid solely because of his Munich title and run last year, but with each passing day that idea becomes less and less ridiculous. The performance against Jaume Munar in the second round was spectacular, and the German was able to maintain all his momentum from last week. Let’s see how far he can go, but it looks like he should be considered the favorite over Ugo Humbert, given how much he likes the faster conditions on clay.
Prediction: Struff in 3
Andrei Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Face-to-face: Rublev 3-0
Andrey Rublev took a well-deserved victory on Friday, as did Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Both have not won a match on clay this year, notably the Russian, who suddenly found himself on a big losing streak (four consecutive defeats). Now that that has been settled, this is shaping up to be a very exciting clash. Peak Davidovich Fokina has all the tools to trouble Rublev, but the seventh seed’s high baseline simply makes him much more reliable. We haven’t seen a match like this from the Spaniard for a while.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
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-Hubert Hurkacz vs. Daniel Altmaier
Face-to-face: Hurkacz 1-0
Daniel Altmaier made his first ATP 1000 quarter-final in this stadium last year, and even though his journey does not include any declared victory, he proves this week that he really feels extremely comfortable at Madrid. But Hubert Hurkacz will not be easy to stop. The Pole is 7-1 on clay this year and fired 22 forehand winners in a straight-sets victory over Jack Draper. He hit this shot very well last month, which might make some of Altmaier’s baseline variety slightly irrelevant.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 2
Denis Shapovalov vs. Alexander Zverev
Face-to-face: Zverev 5-3
Alexander Zverev has a phenomenal record in Madrid with a win rate of over 80% (22-4) and two titles. The German’s serve always stands out in these conditions, and in the last two editions he has only been beaten here by Carlos Alcaraz (after winning the title in 2021). Denis Shapovalov is slowly rebuilding his form, and although clay isn’t the ideal time to continue, he has already beaten two surface specialists this week. But Zverev may just be too much, and their only previous meeting in Madrid was a bit of a beating.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
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